My Enemy’s Propaganda

Al Qaeda’s clearing house, Al Jazeera, issued another Academy Award contender today. The star of the video is the terrorist organization’s second in command, Ayman Al Zawahiri, who pulls a thrilling Jihadiwood performance. While Steven Spielberg’s new movie “Munich” will probably win the award for the Most Delusional Propaganda of 2006, this videotape will give it some stiff competition.

Al Zawahiri claims that recent announcements concerning the reduction of US troop levels in Iraq is evidence of a US military defeat. He taunts the US president by saying, “Regarding your withdrawal timetable ... you have to admit, Bush, that you have been defeated in Iraq and are being defeated in Afghanistan and will be defeated in Palestine”.

Of course, the opposite is true because the reduction of US troops means that the Iraqis are beginning to obtain the ability to defend themselves. US firepower is giving Iraq the time it needs to build a new military that does not have the blood on its hands that the former Baathist army had.

Some may say that I shouldn’t repeat enemy propaganda, especially because they have used it effectively to encourage Western opposition to the war on terror. But I feel that it is important to understand our enemy so that we can defeat them by deciphering their true motives and figure out how they implement their strategy.

To determine why al Qaeda made this statement we need to take a look at the facts on the ground. Early in the conflict Iraqi troops were completely unreliable. They had no discipline and withered under fire. Police stations were routinely sacked by insurgents and their ranks were badly infiltrated by the enemy.

Today the volatile Anbar province is being defended by 20,000 competent Iraqi soldiers who are taking an increasing share of counterinsurgency duties away from the Americans. In the key city of Fallujah the police force is almost up to its full strength of 1,700 officers. This is important because just a year ago many of its officers joined the insurgency or fled in the face of attack. A reliable police force in the city is really good news.

Citing the success of embedded US advisors in Iraqi army units, the US will begin a new strategy of embedding advisors in Iraqi police units. Formerly, US advisors were headquartered in many Iraqi police stations to coordinate counterinsurgency efforts, but this will be the first time that US advisors will both train Iraqi police officers and be embedded on patrols.

Before the last elections several offensive operations were undertaken in remote border towns. Unlike earlier operations, this time troops were left in sufficient strength to prevent the insurgents from retaking the towns after the main US forces left. In addition, a series of border forts were built to restrict the movement of insurgents and their supplies.

These developments and the emergence of Iraqi self rule has caused al Qaeda to panic. Their efforts to provoke the Shiites into full scale warfare with the Sunnis have been fruitless. Attempts to prevent Iraqis from voting have failed so badly that in the last election they just about stopped trying. The campaign to demoralize US troops through the use of car bombs and IEDs has proven to be completely unsuccessful. Large numbers of Iraqi citizens continue to apply for jobs as policemen despite heavy casualties suffered by those waiting outside recruiting offices. Failure after failure has dogged the insurgency over the last year. Now al Qaeda is looking at the prospect that US troops could safely leave Iraq in the hands of its allies. With the Americans gone the insurgency will certainly lose support in the face of a stable Iraqi self government.

I haven't forgotten Osama bin Laden’s triumphant statement, “we love death like you love life”. He was mistaken to think that the US lacks the will to fight. Over 2,000 US casualties proves that we will not retreat at the first sign of blood. Al Qaeda’s leadership seriously underestimated American resolve.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has successfully weathered criticism that the US had no strategy for Iraq, confirming that those critics were wrong as well. The evidence is clear; two elections, a constitution, a new Iraqi army, a defeated Mahdi Army Militia and the dismantling of the brutal Baathist regime. This could not have happened without a persistent and coherent long-term strategy.

Given the patience that the Bush administration has shown in face of several years of adversity, it is likely that they will not be unduly influenced by al Qaeda’s new stratagem. However, I predict causalities will go up as US troop levels decrease. The enemy will fight harder as they sense their window of opportunity closing. This is already happening as I write these words.

Oh by the way, would somebody please tell Al Zawahiri that just because the Atlanta Hawks beat the Celtics it doesn’t mean they are a contender? The Hawks have worst record in the NBA and the Celtics are 13 – 19 this year, geezzzzzz